Price Forecast Through July 2026
Week-by-Week Outlook
| Week | Forecast Price | Trend | Price Pressure | Weather Outlook | Avg Temp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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The Forecasting Model
A multiplicative elasticity model for crawfish prices
This forecast uses the same mathematical framework as commodity trading and agricultural economics. Rather than guessing from a single variable, it combines five independent market signals — each calibrated to how the Louisiana crawfish market actually behaves. Every Sunday the model pulls fresh weather data from NOAA, recalculates all five factors, and publishes a new week-by-week price path through end of season.
Master Price Formula
The Five Elasticity Factors
Crawfish are ectotherms — their metabolism and harvestability are directly controlled by water temperature. Below 50°F they burrow deep and harvests collapse entirely. The ideal harvest window is 60–75°F. Above 88°F, late-season die-off accelerates rapidly.
| Avg Temp (°F) | Ew | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| < 45°F | 1.35 | Severe supply crash |
| 45–51°F | 1.20 | Greatly reduced harvest |
| 52–57°F | 1.08 | Below optimal yield |
| 58–72°F | 0.95 | Ideal harvest window |
| 73–80°F | 1.00 | Warm but productive |
| 81–88°F | 1.10 | Late season thinning |
| > 88°F | 1.28 | Near end-of-season die-off |
Lent is the single largest demand driver — crawfish specials every Friday from Ash Wednesday through Easter. Mardi Gras, Memorial Day, and July 4th create boil spikes. April–May is the cultural peak of the season.
| Period | Base Esd | Modifier | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1.12 | — | 1.12 |
| February | 1.08 | Mardi Gras ×1.06 | 1.08–1.14 |
| March (Lent) | 1.00 | Lent ×1.09 | 1.00–1.09 |
| April | 0.94 | Lent ×1.09 | 0.94–1.02 |
| May | 0.96 | Mem. Day ×1.05 | 0.96–1.01 |
| July | 1.25 | July 4th ×1.08 | 1.25–1.35 |
Supply builds from December lows through April peak, then collapses through July as heat kills the remaining population. This creates a predictable U-shaped price curve driven entirely by supply-side biology, independent of demand.
| Phase | Weeks | Est | Supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very early | Wks 1–5 | 1.20 | Low — just starting |
| Early ramp | Wks 6–10 | 1.08 | Building steadily |
| Peak season | Wks 11–16 | 0.95 | Maximum production |
| Late peak | Wks 17–20 | 0.98 | Good but thinning |
| Season end | Wks 21–24 | 1.14–1.30 | Heat collapsing supply |
Drought years push prices up 15–25% as shallow ponds crowd crawfish and reduce oxygen. Wet winters support larger populations and better harvests. A seasonal precipitation proxy calibrated to historical south Louisiana rainfall patterns is used by month.
| Month | Er | Rainfall Condition |
|---|---|---|
| January | 1.05 | Dry winter — modest pressure |
| February | 1.02 | Near neutral |
| March | 0.97 | Spring rains begin |
| April | 0.95 | Wettest month — full ponds |
| May | 0.96 | Still wet — good conditions |
| June | 1.05 | Evaporation rising |
| July | 1.10 | Hot and dry — pond stress |
Crawfish farming is fuel-intensive — diesel powers aeration systems, harvest boats, and delivery trucks. Labor costs have risen steadily. A 3% annual upward drift is applied, compounded weekly, reflecting structural inflationary pressure regardless of seasonal conditions. At Week 1, Ed ≈ 1.001 (nearly neutral). At Week 22 (late July), Ed ≈ 1.013 — a modest but real 1.3% structural premium baked into late-season prices.
Where n is the number of weeks from today. The exponent ensures the drift compounds smoothly rather than applying a flat uplift — mirroring how real inflationary cost pressures accumulate over time.
Data Sources & Automation
Live 7-day hourly temps from api.weather.gov for the New Orleans forecast grid. Observed temps from KMSY. No API key required — fully public.
PHP script runs every Sunday at 6 AM CT via cron job. Fetches NOAA data, recomputes all five factors, smooths the price path, and writes forecast.json — fully automatic, no manual action needed.
Elasticity values calibrated against historical New Orleans metro crawfish price patterns 2018–2024, cross-referenced with USDA reports and known Lent demand premiums in local wholesale markets.
Weeks 1–3: most reliable (real NOAA data). Weeks 4–10: seasonal models. Weeks 10+: directionally correct, wide confidence bands. Extreme events or market shocks not predicted.